Tropical Storm Francine has begun to intensify in the Gulf of Mexico as it moves toward an expected hurricane strike on Louisiana and parts of the western Gulf Coast by midweek.
The storm started churning in the record-warm waters of the western Gulf after forming on Monday morning, a few hundred miles from the Mexico-Texas border. Wind speeds escalated from 50 to 60 mph by the afternoon, just 14 mph short of hurricane status.
Heavy rainfall, fierce winds, and life-threatening storm surges are anticipated this week across the western Gulf Coast. As Francine strengthens, tropical storm and hurricane watches have been issued for the affected areas.
Francine’s formation comes after an unusually quiet period in the Atlantic, with no named storms since Ernesto in mid-August, typically one of the most active times of hurricane season.
While Louisiana remains in Francine’s likely path, its exact landfall location and strength are still uncertain. The storm could rapidly intensify over the abnormally warm waters—a consequence of fossil fuel-driven climate change—that act like jet fuel for tropical systems, potentially making it stronger than expected.
Louisiana authorities are already preparing for the storm. Some parishes, including St. Mary and Terrebonne, began closing floodgates and distributing sandbags on Monday. Terrebonne Parish has also declared a state of emergency.
Francine is expected to reach hurricane status by Tuesday night, several hundred miles east of the Texas coast, and is forecasted to intensify until it makes landfall on Wednesday evening.
By Tuesday, tropical storm-force winds could affect far northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. Ahead of this, the Mexican coast could experience coastal flooding from storm surge and rough seas early in the week.
The worst rain and wind from Francine are predicted to start by Wednesday morning, while concerns over storm surge will grow as the system strengthens and nears landfall. A storm surge watch was issued on Monday for coastal areas from far eastern Texas to Louisiana and Mississippi. Central Louisiana’s coast is expected to bear the brunt of the surge, with levels possibly rising up to 10 feet above normal, especially just before landfall.
Heavy rain also poses a significant threat, especially for coastal areas in northwestern Mexico on Monday. Southern Texas could experience downpours as early as Monday, with the broader Gulf Coast affected by Tuesday.
The storm’s tropical rainfall is expected to bring between 4 and 8 inches of rain across far northeastern Mexico, the Texas coast, and southern Louisiana this week, with some areas seeing nearly a foot of rain. A more general rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is predicted across the wider region.
Texas is likely to receive its heaviest rain early in the week, but Louisiana could face the most intense conditions late Tuesday night.
The tropical rainfall may cause a “considerable” risk of flash flooding, the NHC has warned.
A level 3 out of 4 risk for flooding rainfall has been issued for Wednesday, covering much of Louisiana and parts of southern Mississippi, as forecasted by the Weather Prediction Center.
Meanwhile, two other areas in the open Atlantic have a moderate chance of developing into tropical systems in the next seven days, according to the NHC. However, any potential storm from these areas is still days away, making it too soon to predict their exact impact.