No one can predict with certainty how the Tuesday night showdown between presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will unfold, but those with a talent for forecasting chaos may find opportunities to profit.
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A variety of betting categories have been made available for the event, ranging from the straightforward—such as how many Americans will tune in—to the unusual, including which specific insults Trump might direct at Harris.
While gambling sites and sportsbooks within the U.S. are prohibited from accepting wagers on political events, offshore betting platforms claim to have taken in millions of dollars in bets. Their odds offer a unique glimpse into how wildly unpredictable some experts expect the debate to be.
The offshore book BetOnline has also introduced odds on how many lies from each candidate will be fact-checked by The Washington Post. The over-under for Harris is set at 5.5, while Trump’s is listed at a significant 19.5.
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An over-under on the number of U.S. viewers for the debate has been set at 75 million by Bet.us, which will use Nielsen data. Trump is favored to have more total speaking time, despite ABC News' promise to enforce strict limits on response lengths. It is not expected that the two candidates will shake hands.
According to Bet.us, Harris is favored at -220 to win the debate outright in the eyes of surveyed viewers, with the result being determined by a CBS-affiliated poll.
This prediction is consistent with other sportsbooks and the online wagering platform Polymarket, which lists Harris as having a 73 percent chance of emerging victorious in the debate.
Polymarket, which includes GOP megadonor Peter Thiel as an investor, reported that it had accepted more than $9 million in wagers related to the Harris-Trump debate as of Tuesday morning.
Despite Harris being favored to win the debate, most betting markets have recently shifted, giving Trump a slight advantage in terms of winning the electoral college in November.