Trump's suggestion for NATO members to spend 5% of GDP on defense sparks division and debate across Europe, highlighting spending challenges.
Donald Trump's proposition that NATO members should allocate 5% of their GDP to defense has elicited varied reactions across Europe.
The president-elect raised this figure — more than double the current 2% target — at a Tuesday press briefing.
"I think NATO should have 5%," he stated. "They can all afford it, but they should be at 5%, not 2%."
Currently, no member of the alliance meets the 5% GDP defense spending threshold.
NATO projections for 2024 indicated that Poland was poised to lead the alliance in defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP, with Warsaw investing over 4% of its economic output in defense. Estonia and the U.S. followed, with spending levels of 3.43% and 3.38%, respectively.
Trump's remarks triggered consternation among some European officials.
Ralf Stegner, a member of Germany's Social Democratic Party, described Trump's comments as "delusional and truly insane" in a Facebook post.
"Where are the resources supposed to come from to solve the real-world problems?" he questioned. "We have too much poverty, environmental destruction, civil wars, migration, and too few resources to combat this more actively."
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto expressed skepticism about the practicality of Trump's proposal: "I don't think it will be five, which at this time would be impossible for almost all nations in the world," he said, according to the Italian news agency Ansa.
However, Crosetto added that he anticipated the target would be increased beyond 2%.
Italy was on track to spend 1.49% of its GDP on defense in 2024, while Germany — which is preparing for a snap federal election in February — was set to spend 2.12%.
For nations geographically closer to Russia and its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, an increase in defense expenditure may seem more palatable.
Warsaw has already indicated its support for Trump's demand, with the Polish defense minister telling the Financial Times that Poland "can be the transatlantic link between this challenge set by President Trump and its implementation in Europe."
In Estonia, the shared border with Russia has contributed to heightened tensions and a greater emphasis on defense.
Responding to Trump's comments, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told Politico that it was the "message that Estonia has been advocating for years."
"This is a clear signal to Putin that he should not dare to test NATO's nerves and that we are prepared for it," he said.
At a Northern Group partners' meeting last year, Estonia's defense minister urged allies to raise spending to 2.5% to counter the threat of Russian aggression.
Sweden, which has also increased its defense spending since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, also supported the call for greater investment.
"There is a broad consensus in Sweden that we need to invest more in our defense," the country's foreign minister, Maria Malmer Stenergard, said, according to Politico. "US governments have long urged European countries to increase their defense spending and to bear more of their own defense costs. We share this view."
Lithuania has also prioritized defense spending amid the growing Russian threat. Its president, Gitanas Nausėda, recently called on European countries to "show more support for the US global agenda" by increasing their share of the defense burden.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has acknowledged that Europe recognizes the need for increased defense spending.
During a visit to Warsaw in November, Rutte commended Poland for its defense spending efforts, stating that it sent "a clear message not only to our adversaries but also to the United States. That Europe understands it must do more to ensure our shared security. And that starts with spending more and also fielding more capabilities."
Nevertheless, analysts suggest that Trump's 5% target is unrealistic.
"Many European NATO countries are funding higher military spending through debt, cuts in other expenditure areas, and proposals to increase taxes," Nan Tian, a senior researcher and program director at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme, told Business Insider. "These existing increases would push military spending to a level about half of what Trump proposed of 5% of GDP, thus I don't think this is a realistic target."
"A 5% of GDP level would be higher than the same countries spent at the height of the Cold War," Tian added.
Ruther Deyermond, a senior lecturer in King's College London's Department of War Studies, characterized Trump's suggestion as a "coercive tactic."
"It looks as if the point of the 5% demand is for it to be unachievable - the intention seems to be that states will fail," Deyermond wrote on X. "It's a coercive tactic (pay up or your country gets it) that also signals that NATO is no longer a meaningful alliance."