Despite potential ceasefire agreement, Hamas maintains presence in Gaza as Israel faces ongoing militant challenges despite months of military campaign.
Israel and the Palestinian militant group are seemingly near a truce agreement to halt over 15 months of catastrophic conflict in Gaza, though it's encountering a critical late-stage hurdle.
The deal, which has encountered obstacles in its final moments as the militant organization backtracks on certain elements and Israel seeks additional compromises, is anticipated to ultimately be finalized. The arrangement seeks to enable captive releases from Gaza and an influx of humanitarian assistance into war-torn regions, while also establishing pathways toward a lasting cessation of violence.
Yet regardless of the negotiation outcomes, numerous underlying conflict drivers persist, and Israel's militant organization challenge seems to be a lasting predicament.
American officials have indicated that Israel's intensive military operation in Gaza eliminated countless fighters and removed key leadership figures, including the veteran commander Yahya Sinwar. Yet following all this, the resistance group endures, presenting Israel with an ongoing issue. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aimed to destroy the organization, but this hasn't materialized.
This circumstance makes subsequent decisions particularly crucial.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that America has consistently communicated to Israel that military action alone cannot defeat the militant group and requires a post-war strategy for Gaza, or "something equally repugnant and threatening" will emerge.
"Whenever Israel concludes its military actions and withdraws," he stated at an Atlantic Council gathering this week, "militant fighters regroup and resurface because no alternative exists to fill the vacuum."
The current conflict marks the fifth confrontation between Israel and the militant group since 2008, though its magnitude vastly exceeds previous engagements. The organization, nevertheless, remains a persistent challenge for Israeli leadership and armed forces.
"We estimate that the group has enlisted nearly as many new combatants as it has lost," Blinken cautioned, noting that this "creates conditions for sustained insurgency and endless conflict."
The October 7, 2023, incursions, when the militant group and other fighters killed approximately 1,200 people across Israel and captured another 250 individuals, sparked a responsive Israeli aerial campaign and ground offensive in Gaza that demolished much of the territory and resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian casualties.
Israeli authorities maintained throughout the conflict that the objective was to defeat the militant group and remove it from control in Gaza. However, experts questioned this strategy, suggesting that Israel faced an unwinnable situation in its large-scale campaign.
Even with a ceasefire arrangement now established, the militant group — though severely weakened and damaged and lacking the external backing from Hezbollah in Lebanon it previously held — maintains operational and military influence in Gaza.
"The militant organization won't vanish," former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed told Business Insider. "All this discussion about destroying and eliminating the group — it won't actually happen. It was merely political messaging."
Melamed, who founded the Inside the Middle East Institute, indicated that the crucial question involves whether Palestinians will hold the militant group responsible for initiating the conflict with its October 7 assault. He noted that prisoner releases from Israel under the ceasefire terms could enhance the organization's standing in Gaza.
Survey results have shown that the group maintains significant backing within Gaza, where it has governed for nearly twenty years. Its deeply rooted position complicates Israel's efforts to permanently remove it. This has been observed with terrorist operations throughout the Middle East.
Bruce Hoffman, a counterterrorism specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, informed BI that such organizations, having endured for many years, "are tremendously difficult — if not impossible — to fully eradicate."
He indicated that, for the immediate future, the militant group will be unable to execute another October 7-type assault against Israel but noted that the organization retains substantial resources. What the group primarily requires is leadership, and it may find this through prisoners released from Israeli detention.
"The organization is undoubtedly weakened and diminished from its previous state, but the ability to continue rebuilding, well, this is expected," Hoffman stated. "I don't think anyone's astonished by that."